Mankiw: Tax Cuts Work 2x Better Than Government Spending to Cure Recession

New York Times op-ed, Tax Cuts Might Accomplish What Spending Hasn’t, by N. Gregory Mankiw (Harvard University, Department of Economics):

When devising its fiscal package, the Obama administration relied on conventional economic models based in part on ideas of John Maynard Keynes. Keynesian theory says that government spending is more potent than tax policy for jump-starting a stalled economy. The report in January put numbers to this conclusion. It says that an extra dollar of government spending raises GDP by $1.57, while a dollar of tax cuts raises GDP by only 99 cents. The implication is that if we are going to increase the budget deficit to promote growth and jobs, it is better to spend more than tax less.

But various recent studies suggest that conventional wisdom is backward.
One piece of evidence comes from Christina D. Romer, the chairwoman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers. In work with her husband, David H. Romer, written at the University of California, Berkeley, just months before she took her current job, Ms. Romer found that tax policy has a powerful influence on economic activity. According to the Romers, each dollar of tax cuts has historically raised G.D.P. by about $3 — three times the figure used in the administration report. That is also far greater than most estimates of the effects of government spending.

Other recent work supports the Romers’ findings. In a December 2008 working paper, Andrew Mountford of the University of London and Harald Uhlig of the University of Chicago apply state-of-the-art statistical tools to United States data to compare the effects of deficit-financed spending, deficit-financed tax cuts and tax-financed spending. They report that “deficit-financed tax cuts work best among these three scenarios to improve G.D.P.”
My Harvard colleagues Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna have recently conducted a comprehensive analysis of the issue. In an October study, they looked at large changes in fiscal policy in 21 nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. They identified 91 episodes since 1970 in which policy moved to stimulate the economy. They then compared the policy interventions that succeeded — that is, those that were actually followed by robust growth — with those that failed.

The results are striking. Successful stimulus relies almost entirely on cuts in business and income taxes. Failed stimulus relies mostly on increases in government spending. ...
These studies point toward tax policy as the best fiscal tool to combat recession, particularly tax changes that influence incentives to invest, like an investment tax credit.

The Rise of Foreclosure Filings

http://www.kiplinger.com/tools/foreclosure/map.html

Inflation by Country

http://www.visualeconomics.com/inflation-by-country/

Efficient-market hypothesis

"I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient."
Warren Buffett

The Decline: The Geography of a Recession

http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html

The Biggest Government Bailout Is Yet To Come

By Heidi N. Moore
Posted Thursday, September 24, 2009 - 1:04pm
"If you've got me," Lois Lane once asked Superman as he flew to her rescue, "Who's got you?" We could point that same perplexed question at the U.S. government and its ranks of overwhelmed financial agencies, which are now in bigger danger than the nation's banks ever were... continued @ http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/judgments/2009/09/24/biggest-government-bailout-yet-come?page=0,0

The Rise and Fall of the Dollar

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/SeanMaloneRiseFallDollarLarge.jpg

China to Increase Oil Reserves

China plans to increase strategic crude oil reserves by 160 percent to 270 million barrels during the next five years, Nikkei English News said, citing an unidentified official from China’s National Energy Administration.

China will spend 30 billion yuan ($4.39 billion) for stockpiling facilities with a capacity to hold 169 million barrels, the report said.

China Petrochemical Corp., China National Petroleum Corp. and other companies will construct and use the storage sites, the Nikkei said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aqC60PRYO.Bw

Germans taste machines with Midas touch

Long attracted to the safety of solid gold, Germans will soon be able to sate their appetite for the yellow metal as easily as buying a chocolate bar after plans were announced on Tuesday to install gold vending machines in airports and railway stations across the country.

Continued @
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51f1e17a-5ab7-11de-8c14-00144feabdc0.html

Russia, China to Promote Ruble, Yuan Use in Trade

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSTmuCr.RD88

Weaker dollar boosts oil and gold

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/259e22b2-5a5a-11de-8c14-00144feabdc0.html

Canada decries "rising tide" of U.S. protectionism

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE55C26J20090613

Oil and the Quantity of Money

While oil remains a finite and, in fact, declining resource, the money supply is limited only by the whims of central bankers. The price of oil has a compelling relationship with the supply of money.

India's Economy Slows Pace of Growth

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124360663561866505.html

J.B. Say - A Treatise on Political Economy, Book I, Chapter XV, Paragraphs 19-20

From this fruitful principle, we may draw this further conclusion, that it is no injury to the internal or national industry and production to buy and import commodities from abroad; for nothing can be bought from strangers, except with native products, which find a vent in this external traffic. Should it be objected; that this foreign produce may have been bought with specie, I answer, specie is not always a native product, but must have been bought itself with the products of native industry; so that, whether the foreign articles be paid for in specie or in home products, the vent for national industry is the same in both cases.

The same principle leads to the conclusion, that the encouragement of mere consumption is no benefit to commerce; for the difficulty lies in supplying the means, not in stimulating the desire of consumption; and we have seen that production alone, furnishes those means. Thus, it is the aim of good government to stimulate production, of bad government to encourage consumption.

Buffett, Rogers Warn: Inflation Ahead

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/buffett_rogers_inflation/2009/03/13/191719.html

A Glimpse at the Emerging Treasury Bubble

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/business/30markets.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Japan: The Trouble with “Free” Money

http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/04/27/japan-the-trouble-with-free-money/

U.S. Loses a Trade Case Over Japanese Steel Imports

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: April 24, 2009

GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization ruled against the United States on Friday in a trade case, saying that it continued to apply illegal import duties on Japanese steel products and ball bearings. The 65-page verdict said that Washington had failed to change how it sets fees for goods it suspects are being sold in the United States at below-market value, despite previous rulings that the United States was violating international trade rules.

If there is no appeal, Japan can ask the global trade body to authorize sanctions against American goods to force compliance. It said last year that the fees were costing Japanese industry $248.5 million each year.

The office of the United States trade representative had no comment. The United States has lost similar disputes with the European Union, Canada and others over how it determines antidumping fees for foreign goods.

Governments investigate dumping when they suspect foreign producers are exporting goods at artificially low prices — usually as a result of subsidies or in an attempt to corner a market. W.T.O. panels have consistently found that the United States overestimates how far below market value imports are, and as a result penalizes them with antidumping duties that are too high.

Stopping Power - Jack in the Box

Consumers are awash in advertisements. Marketers, zealous in their attempts to persuade potential consumers, have desensitized the vast majority of citizens. We have become, in effect, trained to filter out the massive amount of redundant advertising that we are exposed to. In order for marketing to be effective in this environment, marketing specialists need to be creative. According to Hiam (2007), “Your ads need to have much more stopping power than most to get a significant number of people to remember and think about your product” (p. 229). Young and Rubicam outlined seven principles to aide marketers in creating stopping power. These principles can be helpful in assisting marketing professionals to evaluate the effectiveness of their campaigns.

Jack in the Box (http://www.jackinthebox.com/) (click on ‘Commercials’ for examples) is a popular west coast franchise that frequently has a lot of stopping power advertising campaigns. While their ads tend to be slightly risqué, Jack in the Box advertisements are sure to grab your attention. Amongst the Young and Rubicam principles, these advertisements:

-Surprise the audience
-Communicate expected information
-Violate the rules and personality of the product

Viewers of any Jack in the Box commercial will be surprised and perhaps even startled by the main character, Jack. While Jack is an outlandish character, he communicates the intended message of the marketing team. Consider, for example, the first ad under ‘Commercials’ on the Jack in the Box web site. Jack is seen walking down the street comparing his company to “one of their competitors.” Towards the end of the commercial, Jack is standing with Burger King clearly in the background. At that point, Jack violates the rules and personality expected within the restaurant business by tearing off his sleeves and issuing the challenge: “Do something about it.” This is a very effective ad with plenty of stopping power. For a good laugh check out the next commercial about the jogger coming in for a smoothie. Outstanding stopping power!

References

Hiam, Alexander (2007). Marketing. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Business Practice: Thoughts on the Rotation of Personnel

The military policy of rotating members is similar in its intent to that of the international business world. Organizations have come to believe that diverse experiences from team members with varied backgrounds will bring more ideas to emerging problems. While there may be some benefits and legitimacy to the practitioners of such policy, I do not believe that it is absolutely necessary to rotate personnel as frequently as the military does. Aside from the enormous expense associated with moving families and personnel great distances, employees tend to operate with an efficiency that would best befit a bell-curve. Ones effectiveness is optimized not at the beginning or end of a tour, but rather in the middle. Shorter rotation periods would seem to have the unintended consequence of abbreviating this optimized efficiency period.

Britain’s Debt Deepens; Its Outlook Grows Gloomier

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/business/global/23pound.html?_r=1&src=twt&twt=nytimesbusiness

Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world

1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail.

2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism.

3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system.

4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”.

5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency.

6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning.

7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Be robust in the face of them.

8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is denial.

9. Economic life should be definancialised. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement.

10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself.

Source:Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
FT, April 7 2009 20:02
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d5aa24e-23a4-11de-996a-00144feabdc0.html

Bank Profits Appear Out of Thin Air

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/21/business/21sorkin.html?_r=1&src=twt&twt=nytimesbusiness

Case Study: Promoting Coke in South Africa

Multinational corporations must work hard to maintain a positive public image. While these organizations stand to greatly benefit from existing technology, capabilities, and economies of scale, they are frequently challenged in their efforts to enter new markets. Consumers are frequently skeptical of change and may harbor some hostility towards large multinational organizations. As Coca Cola has expanded its brand around the world, it has worked hard to be creative in its marketing while maintaining a positive public image. The success of Coke in Africa is a direct result of the company’s ability to embrace and support the unique culture of the many regions around the continent.

Understanding that their image as an American business juggernaut might be met with some resistance, Coca Cola has worked hard to maintain positive publicity in Africa. According to Lascu (2008), “Companies use public relations, supporting their local community and community events to create positive publicity for their brands” (p. 400). In an effort to appeal to the target consumer while enhancing its public image, Coke developed the Coca-Cola Africa Foundation. According to The Coca Cola Company (2008), “The foundation addresses individual and collective needs across issues of health, education and the environment, as well as supporting subject-matter expert development. In short, it is a clear reaffirmation of The Coca-Cola Company's belief in, and long-term commitment to Africa.” By developing this foundation, Coke has demonstrated its commitment to the community and has favorably positioned itself within its target groups. Having positioned itself as a company that cares about the community, Coke has experienced rapid adoption by what might have otherwise been a reluctant market. This success is indicative of the value of maintaining a positive corporate image.

As Coke developed its marketing strategies within Africa, it worked hard to focus on a modular strategy. As a well-known multinational corporation, Coca-Cola had much to gain from utilizing its existing marketing material and strategies. Having identified its target group as young South Africans, Coke leveraged its “Coke Side of Life” campaign to appeal to local tastes. This ability to utilize existing strategies while understanding local trends has proved particularly successful. In addition to utilizing its own marketing teams, Coke has successfully aligned with many partners. In 2002, Coke partnered with Riverside Technologies to create Instant Win cans. According to Instant Win Innovations (2009), “The company currently maintains a long-standing relationship with The Coca-Cola Company, which owns licensing rights to several of our patented “Instant Win!” products.” This marketing campaign further enhanced Coke’s position as a leader in the carbonated beverage industry in Africa.

Coca-Cola, as a rapidly expanding multinational corporation, has worked hard to maintain and enhance its public image. Utilizing public outreach programs, Coke has been largely successful in this endeavor. As corporations move into new and untested markets, it is essential that they consider their public image. Coca-Cola has experienced overwhelming success in Africa due to the combination of this appeal and it consistent and creative marketing campaigns.


References

Lascu, Dana-Nicoleta. 2008. International Marketing (3rd ed.). Mason, OH:
Cengage Learning.

Instant Win Innovations. 2009. About Us. On-line. Available from Internet
http://www.talkingcan.com/About.aspx. accessed 16 April 2009.

The Coca Cola Company. 2008. Regional and Local Foundations. On-line. Available from
Internet http://www.thecoca-colacompany.com/citizenship/foundation_local.html, accessed 16 April 2009.

Restricting Entry

Restricting Entry
by Scott Lincicome

Scott Lincicome is an international trade attorney at White & Case, LLP.
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post on April 16, 2009.


The United States trade policy is adrift, seemingly guided by the protectionist winds of an insular Congress, and an administration that seems more focused on enhancing unilateral enforcement mechanisms than affirming a strong commitment to free trade. In a recent speech, US Trade Representative Ron Kirk signalled the administration's desire to enhance domestic legislative tools for use in trade disputes, and plans for asking trading partners to "commit to actions that level the playing field". As a result, America's closest trading partners are worried and angry; our exporters are anxious; and, just two months into the Obama administration, 60 years of US leadership on free trade is in jeopardy.

Since the 1940s, the US has led the charge to remove international barriers to goods, services and investment. The result: a global trade explosion that has enriched American families, spurred innovation, enhanced our security and helped millions escape poverty. Every US president since Herbert Hoover has championed free trade because of its proven benefits.

Since his inauguration, US President Barack Obama has expressed a desire to follow in his predecessors' footsteps. Meeting his Canadian and Mexican counterparts, Mr Obama backed away from his "overheated campaign rhetoric" on the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). His nominees for commerce secretary and US trade representative have been vocal trade advocates, and he has often celebrated open markets and vowed to resist "escalating protectionism".

Unfortunately, Mr Obama's inaction has undermined this pro-trade rhetoric. Mr Kirk's confirmation took a lackadaisical two months, forcing US officials to cancel World Trade Organisation and bilateral trade negotiations. Meanwhile, new Energy Secretary Steven Chu carelessly suggested using tariffs to protect US manufacturers from countries that haven't addressed carbon emissions — only a day after China's top climate change official warned such carbon tariffs could start a trade war. This has all the makings of a captainless ship.

Mr Obama has not countered the protectionist impulses of his Democratic colleagues in Congress. Without White House leadership, Congress has injected anti-trade features into the year's two spending bills: the "stimulus" and the 2009 Omnibus Appropriations Act. Several reports have spotlighted the international angst over the stimulus bill's "Buy American" provision and the US$2.4 billion in retaliatory tariffs that Mexico applies to US exports because of the omnibus bill's ban on Mexican trucks (in direct violation of Nafta). But less reported are the bills' other protectionist gimmicks: the stimulus allows US lumber producers to ignore the federal courts and keep US$92 million in illegally collected Canadian and Mexican lumber duties; the omnibus hits imports of both Chinese chicken and Vietnamese and Chinese textiles, and it enables mandatory country labelling for all imported food.

These measures have been rebuked by many of America's closest trade partners, and Mr Obama has been lectured on protectionism from, among others, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, European Union Trade Commissioner Catherine Ashton, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, and Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming. The message: on trade, America is an also-ran.

Because of today's rules-based multilateral trading system and the interdependence of global markets, US fecklessness on trade shouldn't lead to devastating protectionism akin to the Smoot-Hawley-induced tariff wars of the 1930s. But it's still a problem. In 2008, global trade contracted for the first time since 1982, and protectionist pressures abound. The WTO's Doha Round is comatose, even though an ambitious deal could inject US$2 trillion into the reeling global economy. Considering the US has steered every major trade initiative in modern history, any chance for significant progress on trade will disappear without strong American leadership — in word and deed.

Despite these problems, all is not lost. Mr Obama, although clumsily, has limited the damage from "Buy American" and pledged to reinstate the Mexican trucking programme, and the other missteps are similarly containable. But if he wants to restore US leadership on trade, Mr Obama must move quickly from defence to offence. He should immediately reaffirm America's unwavering commitment to expanding global trade, not just "resisting protectionism". He should also tell Democratic leaders in Congress that he will not allow protectionist nitpicking to define his trade agenda.

Finally, the president should announce his intent to treat anti-trade provisions in future bills like all other kinds of earmarks — make them public, transparent and extremely limited. These steps will calm the current anxiety over America's wavering trade policy. They will also give the president the breathing room necessary to craft a long-term trade strategy — one that rehabilitates a domestic free-trade consensus and forges a proactive, politically feasible trade policy that will guarantee America's leadership in the global economy for the next decade.

Nathan Yau - Flowing Data

http://projects.flowingdata.com/

The 10/20/30 Rule of PowerPoint

http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2005/12/the_102030_rule.html

State Tax Burdens
By
Jeff Cornwall on April 14, 2009 11:04 AM

Each year the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council puts out its index of tax burden for each state in the US. From their report:
At the state and local levels, taxes have been piling up on small business owners. Many of states and localities continue to increase levies in various ways, including income, property, sales, assorted excise, gross receipts, and death taxes, along with a wide array of fees.
While each and every tax hits business directly or indirectly, different taxes affect economic decision-making in distinct ways. For example, income taxes are the most worrisome, as they impact incentives for working, investing and entrepreneurship. Property taxes affect decisions regarding investments in buildings and housing. And consumption-based taxes can divert and reduce consumer purchases.

You can find an interactive map here.

The top 10 this year includes:
1 South Dakota
2 Nevada
3 Wyoming
4 Washington
5 Texas
6 Florida
7 Alaska
8 Colorado
9 Alabama
10 Ohio

The worst ten states are (OK, DC is not officially a state, but it seems to be headed that way):
42 Massachusetts
43 Vermont
44 Rhode Island
45 Iowa
46 New York
47 California
48 Maine
49 Minnesota
50 New Jersey
51 Dist. of Columbia
Why does this matter? Taxes, regulatory costs and property rights are the top three predictors of entrepreneurial activity within an economy. Look for the bottom states to lag when the recovery begins to get in gear.

http://www.drjeffcornwall.com/2009/04/state-tax-burdens.html

Value of Household Real Estate

Just 53% Say Capitalism Better Than Socialism

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/just_53_say_capitalism_better_than_socialism

The Deleveraging of Households has Begun

What Everyone Ought to Know About the ‘World Currency’: What Geithner Really Meant, SDRs and More

http://bankling.com/2009/what-everyone-ought-to-know-about-the-world-currency-what-geithner-really-meant-sdrs-and-more/

Case Study: Smart ForTwo: One Car for Narrow European Alleys

Auto manufacturers have long-understood the need to make smaller and more efficient vehicles. While large trucks and SUV’s dominated the market at the turn of the century, the trend toward smaller and more efficient vehicles did not sneak up on anyone. According to a report published in 2001, “automobile manufacturers are under increasing pressure to lessen the adverse environmental impact of their products—pressure that will likely encourage car companies to spend greater resources on the development of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles that increasingly meet the wants and needs of their customers” (DeGroat, 20 Dec 2001). Having previously identified such a trend, Mercedes-Benz was experimenting with a new vision for cars going forward: The Smart Car.

As a manufacturer of high-quality automobiles, Mercedes-Benz understood the need to carefully protect their image as a premium car-maker. This reality needed to be combined with the ever-changing marketplace. Understanding the need to begin producing smaller and more efficient cars, the Smart was launched in 1998. At a time when Detroit-based car companies were building bigger and bigger automobiles without regard to fuel economy, the Smart-design offered consumers an affordable, two-seat car. Having originally designed Smart cars for the small and crowed streets of Europe, the company has attempted to enter the U.S. market in recent years. The Smart ForTwo model was launched in Europe in 2007 and was designed to meet the requirements of the United States. This car was designed to meet governmental regulations within the U.S. market, however other aspects of the Smart ForTwo will take some adjustments for American consumers. According to Consumers Reports (April 2009), the SmartForTwo “features a 1.0-liter, three-cylinder engine that can keep up with traffic but is very slow when starting from a stop.” In addition to performance concerns, American consumers have been slow to adjust to a small car design. The challenges of converting consumers to a new design have troubled the European car maker in its attempts to market the Smart ForTwo in the United States. The marketing team at Smart determined to market their car towards trend-setting young people and internet savvy consumers. In an attempt to rebuff perceptions of inferior design and ease consumer apprehension, “the company staged a 50-city road tour so people could drive the car” (Lascu, 2008, p. 284). Having faced many challenges in developing the new concept for a global marketplace, the Smart design has begun to gain noteworthy traction.

Many consumers are hesitant to try new things. Seeking comfort in the familiar, Americans presented a challenge to the executives at the Smart Car Company. Car manufactures must continually assess market conditions to adjust their branding strategy, vehicle designs and concepts. While the Smart ForTwo may meet with wide acceptance in Europe, designers may need to modify the American product to meet consumers’ expectations. “Most Americans want a car with better fuel economy, but only about half say they would be willing to sacrifice size or performance to get it” (Valdes-Dapena, 24 May 2007). This trend may change, but remains a challenge for the Smart ForTwo today.

References

Consumer Reports . April 2009. Best & Worst 2009 Cars. P. 66.

DeGroat. B. 20 Dec 2001. Smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles may gain buyers in next decade. On-line. Available from Internet
http://www.umich.edu/~newsinfo/Releases/2001/Dec01/r122001c.html, accessed 4 April 2009.

Lascu, Dana-Nicoleta. 2008. International Marketing (3rd ed.). Mason, OH: Cengage Learning.

Valdes-Dapena, P. 24 May 2007. We want better mileage - but power and size, too. On-line. Available from Internet http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/24/autos/cr_mpg_survey/index.htm, accessed 4 April 2009.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

"It Will Liiiiive"

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Company Report

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (the Trust) is a grantor trust. The Trust was formed for the sole purpose of owning and administering the Royalty Interest. The Royalty Interest is a non-operational interest in minerals. The Royalty Interest entitles the Trust to a royalty on 16.42% of the lesser of the first 90,000 barrels of the average actual daily net production of crude oil and condensate per quarter from the working interest of BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc. (BP Alaska), as of February 28, 1989, in the Prudhoe Bay oil field located on the North Slope in Alaska, or the average actual daily net production of crude oil and condensate per quarter from that working interest. The Prudhoe Bay field is one of four contiguous North Slope oil fields that are operated by BP Alaska and are known collectively as the Prudhoe Bay Unit.

The Next Oil Shock

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10071&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Visits

Don't wait to inflation-proof your portfolio

http://ow.ly/1tZU

Do not let the ‘cure’ destroy capitalism

http://blogs.ft.com/capitalismblog/

Buy oil stocks now. Really.

http://ow.ly/1qrg

Case Study: Munich Re

As a leader in the reinsurance business, Munich Re has consistently demonstrated that it is a capable leader in the field. According to Lascu (2008), “Munich Re was founded in 1880 by Carl Thieme, who with a vision far ahead of his time, created the reinsurance business: He convinced investors of the insurance companies’ need for reinsurance as a means of redistributing risk (and loss) among insurance firms, thus allowing them to take advantage of opportunities that otherwise they could not afford to consider” (p. 65). In order to distribute the perceived cost of risk, reinsurance companies must thoroughly investigate potential threats. While some risks can be easily calculated, political risks present unique challenges in the insurance business. Munich Re, like everyone else, failed to predict the terrorist events of September 11, 2001. This new element has caused the organization, and the insurance industry, to carefully reconsider how they conduct business.

Since the inception of the first commercial insurance agencies, insurers have worked hard to assist their consumers in alleviating the very risk that they were insuring against. In addition, insurers quickly ascertained the need to conduct inspections of insured facilities as well as insured individuals in order to correctly inculcate policies and rates. “Historically, insurance has blended risk transfer with incentives to reduce risk” (Freeman & Kunreuther, 2003, p. 165). In insuring buildings against fire, for example, premiums were reduced for measures taken to prevent damage by a fire event. While the insurance industry seemed to have developed efficient systems to account for the inherent risk, they failed to predict the extent of political risk associated with modern terrorism. While some marketing and strategy specialists sought to write terrorism out of policies, the organization might have been better served by a strategy that attempted to embrace terrorism insurance.

In order to adjust the insurance business to new trends, managers must perpetually evaluate the potential for emerging risks. Success in the insurance business relies on the accurate assessment of risk coupled with measures to aide the insured consumers against those risks. Like any threat, there are steps that organizations can take to help reduce the likelihood of a terroristic attack. According to Lascu (2008), “Companies have some control, however, in reducing their likelihood of becoming victims of terrorism by training employees in terrorism avoidance, such as briefing personnel on what to expect when entering high-risk areas and offering training for eluding roadblocks and avoiding hazardous encounters” (p. 44). While it would seem prudent for companies to take such measures, the insurance company could insist on anti-terrorism training as a pre-requisite to acquiring a policy. Additional measures to secure buildings and grounds could further aide in terrorism prevention. The insurance premium, like that of other policies, would then be linked to the steps that the company had taken to prevent an event rather than based on broad averages. “Premiums based on industry averages encourage firms that believe they are less risky than the average to self-insure” (Katztnan, 2003, p. 787). The combination of risk aversion techniques and premiums based on individual risk potential could increase the profitability of Munich Re.


References

Lascu, Dana-Nicoleta. 2008. International Marketing (3rd ed.). Mason, OH: Cengage
Learning.

Freeman, Paul & Kunreuther, Howard. 2003. Managing environmental risks through insurance.
On-line. Available from Internet,
http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/risk/downloads/03-07-HK.pdf, accessed 12 March
2009.

Katztnan, Martin. 2003. Environmental Risk Management Through Insurance. On-line.
Available from the Internet, http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj6n3/cj6n3-4.pdf, accessed 12 March 2009.

China calls for new reserve currency

http://ow.ly/1jZA

Got gold? You're right on the money

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/got-gold-youre-right-on-the-money.aspx

Great News about Recovery!

According to Reuters, “U.S. existing home sales rose in February.”

According to AJC.com, “February jobless claims double a year ago.”

Reading between the media spin we find that “distressed sales accounted for 40-45 percent of transactions in February” and that “the median national home price declined 15.5 percent.” The Reuters article points clearly to the appreciable recovery of the market due to recent policies by the new administration. While gleaning over the increase in unemployment that is driving record high foreclosures, the reaction is that "this is a good report." The spin purports that “sales were up in all four regions.” As a footnote we are told that “about 45 percent of these were foreclosure or short-sale transactions.”

The end result is that markets rallied on favorable news coming from the housing market. Wow! The power of the pen.

References:

AJC.com. http://www.ajc.com/services/content/printedition/2009/03/11/jobs0311.html
Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE52M3MS20090323

So if you don't bail them out...

http://www.komonews.com/news/consumer/41536592.html

Secretary of the Fed

http://ow.ly/1b1D

Mortgage Rates to Fall Further: 7 Things to Know

http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/mortgage-rates-to-fall-further-7-things-to-know.html;_ylc=X3oDMTFycDl0ODgyBF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEX3MDOTc2MjA0NjUEc2VjA2ZwLXRvZGF5BHNsawNtb3J0Z2FnZS1yYXRlcy1mYWxs

Fed to buy up to $300B long-term Treasury bonds

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090318/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates

Geithner – I Just found Out!

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has found himself at the center of attention yet again. Amidst revelations that AIG, one of the largest recipients of taxpayer rescue dollars, will be handing out tens of millions of dollars in bonuses, we are told that Mr. Geithner was unaware of such a fact until last week. According to the NY Times (March 16, 2009):

“Treasury and Fed officials said they knew that A.I.G. paid $55 million in bonuses in December.
But administration officials said that the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, did not personally become aware until last week that an even bigger round of payments was due on March 15. Administration officials said Mr. Geithner learned of the deadline early last week, when the Federal Reserve Bank of New York alerted him that the bonus payments were coming due.”

One may find this revelation odd in light of understanding that Mr. Geithner was the principle architect of the AIG bailout last year while he was President of the NY Fed. According to the NY Post (September 18, 2008), “He's no household name just yet, but financial brainiac Tim Geithner could emerge as the economy's new superstar savior if his desperate gamble to rescue Wall Street works.” The author goes on to describe Geithner as the “quarterback” and “advisor” who rescued AIG from certain failure. In light of this reference, we might recommend that a quarterback who doesn’t know the plays may be better suited to ride the bench.

References

NY Post. September 18, 2008. Geithner Leads Rescue Team: NY Fed Chief at Center of Action. Available On-line at http://www.nypost.com/seven/09182008/business/geithner_leads_rescue_team_129667.htm

NY Times. March 16, 2009. Obama in Effort to Undo Bonuses at A.I.G. Available On-line at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/business/17bailout.html
Photo credit: WhiteHouse.gov

Obama Wants To Force Veterans To Pay For Their Own Health Care

http://sayanythingblog.com/entry/obama_wants_to_force_veterans_to_pay_for_their_own_health_care

Obama Orders Treasury Chief to Try to Block A.I.G. Bonuses

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/us/politics/17obama.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

China 'worried' about safety of U.S. Treasuries

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/03/13/business/13china-nyt.php

Old Europe Is Right on Stimulus

http://ow.ly/QHZ

Basic Instincts — Women’s Intuition

Traditionally, investing in precious metals has been a very male-oriented activity, with men making up 80 to 90 percent of the customer base. However, the ratio has begun to change. Now I’d have to say that no more than 60 percent of precious metals investors are men, which means that women are now closer to 40 percent of all those investing in precious metals.

That change is more than a shift; in fact, it’s practically a revolution.
I’d like to attribute this to women’s basic instincts. Most men should know by now that women tend to have better instincts than men when making decisions. While men tend to take greater risks in the investment world, women are more cautious with their investments. For example, you’ll find them seeking out institutional types of investments and government-backed securities like FDIC insured accounts, savings bonds, and treasury bills.

So, with the economy going down like the Titanic – and Congress and the Fed trying to steer it right back into the iceberg – it’s little surprise that women are looking to be even more cautious than usual and are reverting back to fundamentals.

It turns out that they have the right basic instincts.
Anyone paying attention knows the score: unfunded liabilities, ballooning budget numbers, increased government spending, massive deficits. I won’t bore you with the numbers, but as former U.S. Comptroller General David M. Walker has been saying, the numbers are all big and they’re all bad. The worst of it is not that these numbers are horrific (they are!), but that they’re being reported by the very same foxes who are watching the henhouse. At best, it should cause us to view the numbers with great skepticism if not outright suspicion.

In his book, The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell describes a tipping point as “the levels at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable."
If you have been saving for a rainy day, the storm is upon us. The winds are swirling, momentum is building, and people are sensing that it’s going to get a lot worse. That’s why prices of most commodities – including oil – have fallen off even when world currencies are taking it on the chin. And that’s also why we see gold and silver prices at or near record highs whether you measure them in euros or Swiss francs. And precious gold recently bounced off its all-time high in terms of dollars.

Women intuitively see that this country’s economy has reached a tipping point. Something different is clearly going to happen, and, being the more risk-averse gender, they’re counting on the historical assurance of gold and silver as a means to preserve wealth. Echoing the quote attributed to Mark Twain, they are more concerned about the return of their money than the return on their money.

From: Precious Metals Monthly

International Property Rights

As the world gets smaller as a result of improved transportation, logistics, and communication capabilities, the rights of proprietary products and concepts comes into question on a global scale. The debate over the property rights of patents, copyrights, trademarks, and trade secrets have traditionally taken place within the confines of each national legislature. Multinational organizations, intent on protecting these properties as they conduct business across borders, demand collusion on the part of international agencies and participating nations.

According to Lascu (2008), “violation of intellectual property rights is the most significant threat to competitiveness of companies involved in international business” (p. 46). The organization or the inventor of a product, for example, is protected against replication of that product by a patent. The protection of a patent is currently afforded to those operating within the jurisdiction of the patent office that issues that patent. In order to prevent the loss of this valuable property, global trade regulators must act to create a single standard. Similar challenges are held in the protection of arts and music along with other proprietary organizational property.

While counterfeit property is somewhat rare within the United States, those of us who have traveled abroad can attest to the rampant availability of such merchandise abroad. Walk through the old streets of Dubai, for example, and you will be offered many a fine “Rolex” watch. The lack of enforcement of trademark protection is directly affecting the Rolex company. In addition, many consumers purchase such counterfeit products under the assumption that the product will have been constructed with the same care and authenticity as the original. In order to protect both consumers and corporations from purveyors of counterfeit goods, enforcement must take such vendors off the streets around the world.

Don't endanger free markets, Czech president warns

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N09478499.htm

Case Study: Zhang National Steel Company

Encouraged by the beckoning of national leaders, China quickly became the world’s greatest steel producing nation by 1996. Ten years later, China accounted for over a third of the worlds steel production. This surge of production quickly surpassed domestic needs and began to overflow into a skeptical and mature international market. Other nations, frightened by the prospects of losing jobs to foreign steel manufactures began to erect barriers and tariffs. With so many citizens laboring in this industry and so much invested in its infrastructure, it is vital that China begin to successfully market its steel in the global marketplace. If China cannot maintain its enormous steel industry, unemployment rates will surge and instability will likely result. The challenge has become one of geopolitical stability that must be addressed immediately.

Adam Smith (1776) asserted that, “if a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it of them with some part of the produce of our own industry, employed in a way in which we have some advantage” (p. 422). The benefits of free trade have been widely lauded by economists around the globe. The irony in the challenge of the Chinese steel manufactures is that they must argue in favor of less regulation while the United States and Europe stand as the opposition. China is capable of producing a desirable product at a cost significantly lower than competitors due to advantages in labor costs and existing infrastructure. Additionally, China benefits from production centers that are largely populated near ports and open shipping lanes. The challenge required for these organizations to overcome is finding nations willing to open their ports to free trade.

The solution to China’s steel surplus is to aggressively market their products abroad. This solution will take the form of a geocentric orientation with global marketing. According to Lascu (2008), “The objective of a geocentric company is most often to achieve a position as a low-cost manufacturer and marketer of its product line; such a firm achieves a strategic competitive advantage by developing manufacturing processes that add more value per unit cost to the final product that its rivals” (p. 9). China must now work to aggressively market its steel in India, the United States, and Europe.

India, a billion strong and rapidly growing, produces less than ten percent the amount of steel produced in China. While reviewing the strengths-opportunities block of the SWOT, we discover that India, with ample ports and growing demand, is a market that China needs to pursue. In order to overcome protectionism in the United States and Europe, China will present the facts and recruit talented economists to highlight the benefits of embracing free trade. Allowing cheaper, imported Chinese steel will ensure the cost of construction is cheaper for Americans and Europeans in the future. The success or failure of Chinese steel producers will rely on their ability to reacquaint the British and the Americans with one of their favored sons – Adam Smith.

References

Lascu, Dana-Nicoleta. 2008. International Marketing (3rd ed.). Mason, OH: Cengage
Learning.

Smith, Adam. 1776. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, 2 Vols., Everyman's Library (London: Dent & Sons, 1904), Vol. I.

Trying to Duplicate Conditions of 1930

The Obama administration released trade policy agenda this week leaving investors short on details and long on speculation. The 2009 Trade Policy Agenda fell short of declaring the outright refutation of free trade, however failed to declare any strong support for such an agenda. Obama has repeatedly emphasized the need for the United States to work toward making trade "fairer" rather than freer. While nations around the world await the direction of the administration on this front, investors have reacted with understandable trepidation.

As the administration has taken over a slumping economy, many have been reticent to hastily condemn the actions of President Obama. In his few short months, having increased taxes and virtually ignored the illiquidity of credit markets while moving on to health care reform, observers await the final strike that could exactly duplicate conditions that shifted the United States from a recession to the Great Depression in 1930. The infamous Hawley-Smoot provisions await reproduction. If the circumstances were not so dire the pure foolishness might otherwise seem laughable. Does anyone think the Obama administration will not turn towards protectionism when unemployment hits 10%?

The Road to Economic Hell

http://ow.ly/EBi

Office of Hope Adjustment

Avoiding a Keynesian Rush to Regulate the Financial Markets

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm2323.cfm

How to Achieve Socialism

http://www.campaignforliberty.com/article.php?view=18

A Sample of the 9,287 Omnnibus Bill Earmarks

Amount
Recipient/Purpose
Congressional Sponsor

$1,049,000
Mormon Crickets, Utah
Bennett

$475,000
Sidewalk Construction in Ashland & Cherryland, CA
Lee

$225,000
Everybody Wins!
LaHood

$200,000
Tattoo removal program in Mission Hills, CA
Berman

$190,000
Buffalo Bill Historical Center, Cody, WY
Cubin

$237,500
Theater renovation, Merced, CA
Cardoza

$75,000
Totally Teen Zone, Albany, GA
Bishop, Chambliss

$500,000
National History Day
Several Lawmakers

$570,000
Ronald Reagan Parkway, Boone County, IN
Buyer

$100,000
Gulf of Maine Lobster Foundation
Allen, Snowe, Collins

$332,500
Build a school sidewalk, Franklin, TX
Edwards (TX)

$381,000
George Eastman House, Rochester, NY
Slaughter, Schumer

$380,600
Versailles Borough Stray Gas Mitigation
Doyle (PA)

$75,000
Wayne Gomes Youth Baseball Diversity Foundation
Scott

$381,000
Jazz at Lincoln Center, New York, NY
Nadler

$5,813,000
Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the Senate, Boston, MA
Kerry, Byrd, Harkin, Durbin, Mikulski, Dodd

$950,000
Bus and Bus Facilities, Lawrence, KS
Moore, Roberts

$300,000
Montana World Trade Center
Rehberg

$2,673,000
Wood Education and Resource Center
President, Byrd

$380,000
Lemon Street Reconstruction and Enhancements, FL
Bilirakis

$17,500,000
FDR Presidential Library renovation
Gillibrand, Reid, Schumer

$2,000,000
LBJ Presidential Library
Hutchison

$22,000,000
JFK Presidential Library
Markey, Lynch, Kerry

$300,000
GoGirlGo! Boston, MA
Capuano, Kennedy, Kerry

$285,000
Kansas Farm Bureau, Manhattan, KS
Brownback

$6,838,000
John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts
Several Lawmakers

$427,500
Bicycle/Pedestrian Pathways, Provo, UT
Cannon, Hatch

$950,000
World Trade Center of St. Louis, MO
Bond

$725,000
Illinois Height Modernization
Johnson (IL), LaHood

$298,257
Small business program, Florida Department of Citrus
Boyd, Putnam, Martinez

$237,500
Sidewalk Construction, Vienna, VA
Davis (VA)

$190,000
Bishop Museum, Honolulu, HI
Inouye

$100,000
Police Athletic League of Buffalo, Inc
Slaughter

$206,000
Wool Research
Conaway, Rodriguez (TX)

$475,000
5th & Market St. Transportation Improvements, PA
Specter

$494,000
Business incubator, Arkansas State University
Berry, Lincoln, Pryor

$400,000
Salisbury House, Des Moines, IA
Harkin, Grassley, Boswell

$138,000
John Nance Garner Museum, Austin, TX
Rodriguez (TX)

$190,000
Sidewalk Improvements, Williamstown, VT
Leahy, Sanders

$870,000
Red Wolf Breeding Facility Relocation
Shuler

$190,000
George C. Wallace Community College-Dothan, AL
Everett

$142,500
Pregones Theater, Bronx, NY
Serrano

$6,623,000
Formosan Subterranean Termites Research
Landrieu, Vitter, Alexander

$1,903,000
Landfill Gas Utilization Plant in NY
Schumer

$475,000
Replacement of Bus Fleet, Topeka, KS
Boyda

$285,000
Widening of County Road 222, Cullman, AL
Aderholt

$2,192,000
Center for Grape Genetics, Geneva, NY
Schumer, Walsh, Hinchey, Arcuri

$1,791,000
Swine Odor and Manure Management Research, Ames, IA
Harkin

$950,000
Bossier Parish Congestion Relief Plan, LA
Landrieu, Vitter

$712,500
Replacement Buses, Detroit, MI
Conyers, Levin, Stabenow

$4,545,000
Wood Utilization Research
Several Lawmakers

$200,000
Oil Region Alliance
Peterson (PA)

$2,565,000
Renovate the Cox Building, Maysville, KY
McConnell, Davis (KY)

$400,000
Minnesota Teen Challenge
Ramstad, Coleman

$190,000
Berkshire Theater Festival, Stockbridge, MA
Kennedy, Kerry

$4,750,000
Shiloh Road, MT
Baucus, Tester

$143,000
American Ballet Theatre, New York, NY
Maloney, Schumer

$100,000
Ready, Willing & Able, Philadelphia, PA
Brady (PA)

$250,000
Lederer Theater, Providence, RI
Reed

$1,187,500
Wolf Trap Performing Arts Multi-Use Trail, Fairfax, VA
Moran

$3,800,000
Old Tiger Stadium Conservancy, MI
Levin

$294,500
Jackie Joyner-Kersee Center, East St. Louis, IL
Durbin

$143,000
Historic Jazz Foundation, Inc., Kansas City, MO
Cleaver, Emanuel

$1,000,000
Cal Ripken, Sr. Foundation
Ruppersberger, Mikulski, Shelby

$237,500
Street Rehabilitation, Doral, FL
Diaz-Balart (Lincoln)

$49,134
Bronx Council on the Arts
Serrano

$475,000
Pedestrian Bridges, Iowa City, IA
Loebsack

$167,000
Autry National Center for the American West, Los Angeles, CA
Schiff, McKeon, Bono, Boxer

$315,000
Music education, Carnegie Hall, New York, NY
Maloney, Schumer

$122,821
Greater Toledo Arts Commission
Kaptur

$950,000
55th Street East Grade Separation, Minot, ND
Dorgan, Conrad

$951,500
Energy Efficiency Street Lighting, Detroit, MI
Kilpatrick, Levin, Stabenow

$143,000
Stockbridge-Munsee Museum, Bowler, WI
Kagen

$475,000
Italian American Museum, New York, NY
Ackerman, Nadler

$1,217,000
Citrus Canker, Greening, FL
Several Lawmakers

$900,000
Adler Planetarium and Astronomy Museum, Chicago, IL
Jackson, Jr., Emanuel, Davis (IL)

$142,500
Bus Replacement, Culver City, CA
Watson

$2,150,000
Wisconsin Height Modernization
Obey

$1,900,000
Hattiesburg 4th Street Improvements, MS
Cochran, Wicker

$71,000
Dance Theater Etcetera, Brooklyn, NY
Velázquez

$333,000
Museum of Aviation, Warner Robins, GA
Marshall (GA), Isakson

$1,235,000
Reconstruction and Upgrade 2300 West Street, Lehi, UT
Hatch, Cannon

$380,000
Revitalize Aliceville, AL
Shelby

$150,000
Nashua Police Athletic League Youth Safe Haven
Hodes, Gregg

$237,500
Paving, sidewalks and streetlights, Islip, NY
Israel

$238,000
Museum of Fine Arts, Boston, MA
Kennedy, Kerry

$1,425,000
I-85 Widening, NC
Burr, Dole, Hayes, Watt

$285,000
Sun Valley Lighting Project, CA
Berman

$119,000
Children's Discovery Museum, San Jose, CA
Honda, Lofgren

$385,000
World Trade Center Utah
Bishop (UT), Bennett

$300,000
Shakespeare and Company
Olver, Kennedy, Kerry

$476,000
National Council of La Raza in Washington, DC,
Menendez, Bingaman

$508,000
Karnal Bunt, Manhattan, KS
Brownback, Roberts, Moran, Boyda, Tiahrt

$300,000
Fairplex Trade and Conference Center
Dreier, Napolitano

$237,500
SR-91 Congestion Relief, Orange County, CA
Miller (CA)

$380,000
Construction of On/Off Ramps, Midland, TX
Conaway

$380,600
Carbon Neutral Green Campus, NV
Porter, Reid

$150,000
Manufacturers Association of Central New York
Walsh

$475,000
Calhoun County Highway 1 Resurfacing, IL
Hare

$45,000
Weed It Now on the Berkshire, MA
Olver

$24,000
A+ For Abstinence, Waynesboro, PA
Specter

$819,000
Catfish Genome, Auburn, AL
Shelby, Rogers (AL), Everett, Davis (AL)

$196,514
Beaver Street Enterprise Center, Jacksonville, FL
Brown (FL), Martinez

$75,000
Chattahoochee County Family Connection
Bishop

$2,188,450
Bismarck State College Center Of Excellence Laboratories, ND
Dorgan

$469,000
Fruit fly facility, HI
Akaka, Inouye, Hirono

$800,000
Oyster rehabilitation, AL
Shelby

$238,000
Ed Roberts Campus, Berkeley, CA
Boxer

$475,000
55th Street Extension, Rochester, MN
Donnelly, Lugar


Source: Conference Report of HR 1105

Minimum Wage Indexed to Inflation

From WhiteHouse.Gov:

Increase the Minimum Wage: President Obama will raise the minimum wage to $9.50 an hour by 2011 and index it to inflation so full-time workers can earn a living wage that allows them to raise their families and pay for basic needs such as food, transportation, and housing -- things so many people take for granted.

The Building of a Treasury Bubble

As Washington spends as if there are no negative implications to deficits, treasuries continue to be supported by a public weary of putting money on Wall Street. Our public debt, increasing as never before, is easily supported today by a strong dollar and treasuries that yield near zero. Currently, Fed chairman Bernanke claims that he is not concerned about inflation because the dollar is strong and inflation is flat.


What regulators are forgetting, however, is that once they manage to get Wall Street and Main Street to click again, money will not chase low treasury yields. As such, the recovery of the stock market will quickly pull money out of treasury bonds and necessitate the rapid increase in interest rates. As increased rates chase the market in a vane attempt to pull dollars back in support our enormous debt, inflation will certainly follow. Bottom line, tips and gold are an essential component to any portfolio going forward.

Photo credit: http://farm2.static.flickr.com/

History of Economic Mismanagement - Part IV

The United States is currently amidst a great economic challenge. While inflation rates remain flat and unemployment rates remain relatively modest, there is no denying that America is faced with great challenges today. At its core, a credit crunch, many argue that this crisis developed in the housing market following a run-up in housing prices through 2007. With that said, it might more likely appear that easy credit, backed by securitized debt obligations, was illegally hiding behind prohibitively ambitious credit ratings. In other words, risk was not being accurately portrayed by the credit rating agencies. This systemic credit bubble has subsequently led to a series of government actions and inactions that have met with wide-spread cynicism and uncertainty. The ambiguity of the situation was further developed by the lack of confidence exhibited by the Treasury Secretary and the President following the change of command. Drawing on the lessons of the past, both Democrats and Republicans have largely put aside any plans to increase taxes that they might otherwise have recommended. Similarly, and in stark contrast to actions during the Great Depression, government regulators have made attempts to maintain low interest rates and have refrained from implementing protectionist tariffs. As of this writing, the largest government bailout stimulus spending plan in history has been passed into law and will soon meet with a skeptic public. While it may appear that regulators are beginning to learn some of the lessons of history, it remains to be seen how these steps will affect our future economic conditions.

One must consider that to prescribe the appropriate medicine, one must first precisely identify the problem or cause. In the case of a financial crisis, there have been many attempts to identify the precise cause of each collapse, generally, without any clear consensus in virtually any regard. How is it possible to prevent a problem from reoccurring if one cannot identify, or agree upon, what the exact problem is to begin with? Consider for example, the Great Depression. While many agree that an asset bubble was met with irresponsible policies, others still argue that the Keynesian solution won the day. Many agree that the Fed should have printed more money at the exact time that they began to hoard it. Others maintain that the problem was, at its root, a fiat problem. According to Say (1803), “money, or specie, as some people call it, is a commodity, whose value is determined by the same general laws, as that of all other commodities; that is to say, rises and falls in proportion to the relative demand and supply” (I.XXI.32). Indeed it would appear that the lessons of history failed to produce a consensus opinion. A more recent paper published by the Federal Reserve in 2003 asserts that “the incomplete and erratic recovery from the Great Depression can be traced to a failure to pursue consistently expansionary policy resulting from an incorrect understanding of monetary policy in an environment of very low short-term nominal interest rates” (Orphanides, p. 1). It follows, therefore, that from that writing the Fed would ensure that interest rates remain low; which, of course, brought us to our more recent credit bubble!

From the macro-political perspective, the conundrum remains a daunting philosophical challenge as much as it is an economical one. From the perspective of an international business manager, the problem does not require prevention but rather identification. International business managers must remain cognizant of interest rates, inflation, credit conditions, and the geo-political climate. In order to properly discount future cash-flows effectively, managers must attempt to recognize the potential for risk that goes beyond their direct operations. They must be aware of political and economical conditions that might affect supply networks and distribution chains. While these challenges remain great, they pale in comparison to those of federal regulators.


References
Das, D. (1999). Asian Economic and Financial Crisis: Causes, Ramifications, Lessons. Retrieved on February 19, 2009 from http://igcc.ucsd.edu/pdf/afc/afc_das.pdf
Gibbon, E. (1776). The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. In H. Mueller (Ed.), The Modern Library. New York: Random House Publishing Group.
Madura, J. (2008). International Financial Management (9th ed.). Ohio: Cengage Learning
Orphanides, A. (2003). Monetary Policy in Deflation: The Liquidity Trap in History and Practice [Electronic Version]. Retrieved on February 20, 2009 from http://www.federalreserve.gov/Pubs/feds/2004/200401/200401pap.p
Rome.Info (2009). Fall of the Roman Empire. Retrieved on February 12, 2009 from http://www.rome.info/history/empire/fall/
Say, J. (1803). A Treatise on Political Economy [Electronic Version]. Retrieved on January 25, 2009 from http://www.econlib.org/library/Say/sayT.html
Train, J. (1985). Famous Financial Fiascos. New York: Clarkson N. Potter, Inc., Publishers
U.S. Department of State (2009). Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Retrieved on February 15, 2009 from http://future.state.gov/when/timeline/1921_timeline/smoot_tariff.html

History of Economic Mismanagement - Part III

The 1920s were widely regarded as “good times” by most citizens in the United States of America. The country had risen to defeat the Germans in World War One and was enjoying the fruits of victory. The stock market grew rapidly and the marginal tax rate began to support the growth of bureaucracy throughout the country. Economic ideas had transitioned from the idealistic purveyors of free market capitalism, such as Adam Smith and Jean Baptiste Say, to the romantic communist ideology set forth by Karl Marx and his followers. The good times eventually ended in a recession as share prices fell between 15-20% on October 24, 1929. In an attempt to stabilize the U.S. economy, Congress quickly moved to adopt the Hawley-Smoot Act which was signed by President Hoover in June of 1930. This levy, the highest in U.S. history, subsequently sparked a series of international tariffs by other nations that reduced trade by 66% between 1930 and 1934. The federal funds rate, which began to increase in the spring of 1928, made borrowing difficult or impossible for banks and businesses alike. Additionally, the central bank decreased the money supply in an attempt to stabilize the dollar. This combination of actions resulted in the worst economic conditions in American history. Economic conditions remained dismal as the government experimented with various remedies throughout the 1930s. Following the Bretton Woods Agreement, the Second World War, and the GATT, the United States finally emerged from its greatest economic challenge in its history. (U.S. Department of State, 2009)

The Asian financial crisis is generally believed to have begun in Thailand in 1997. The Thai baht had been pegged to the dollar and supported by direct intervention on the part of the Thai central bank prior to July 2nd of 1997. Despite a crisis that became readily apparent in the currency markets, to be sure, this financial collapse had been long in the making and was systemic in nature. The world-wide economic boom readily embraced many emerging Asian markets. Countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Korea had experienced growth rates in GDP as high as 10% from 1992-1996 while maintaining low rates of inflation. With high growth rates and currencies backed by the dollar, many of these countries saw enormous cash inflows and massive foreign direct investment. Following the economic crisis in Mexico, many more foreign investors dumped money into what appeared to be a more stable and growing market. “These capital inflows fueled a lending boom, which led to excessive risk-taking on the part of banks” (Das, 1999, p. 6). As markets cooled, the asset bubble became apparent, and governments took action. According to Das (1999), the “policy response to these developments was timid and inadequate” (p. 4).

History of Economic Mismanagement - Part II

It is often a deceiving process to evaluate the relative stability and condition of an economy. According to Madura (2008), “The amount of consumption in any country is influenced by the income earned by consumers in that country” (p. 14). Jean Baptiste Say would have countered Madura with the proposition that the amount of relative income earned is influenced by the amount of production. In either event, international business managers’ who are intent on evaluating geopolitical risk in areas of potential foreign direct investment must understand that money is an elusive target. Prevailing interest rates, the potential for inflation, and exchange rate volatility must be considered carefully in order to establish prospective cash flows from a foreign investment.

According to Rome.info (2009), “The Roman economy suffered from inflation (an increase in prices) beginning after the reign of Marcus Aurelius.” Prior to this time, the denarius had remained a very stable currency backed by 60 grains of silver during the time of Julius Caesar. The infamous reign of Commodus (180-192) brought forth a time of superfluous spending and excess. Commodus fashioned himself a warrior and his execution of animals and prisoners in the great coliseums were amongst his favorite pursuits. According to Gibbon (1776), Commodus, “received from the common fund of gladiators a stipend so exorbitant that it became a new and most ignominious tax upon the Roman people” (p. 75). The gold and silver in the treasury soon became depleted and thus the currency began to be comprised of smaller and smaller amounts of actual value. By the time of Commodus’s murder, the denarius contained 26 grains of silver. The reduced value of this new currency caused hyperinflation and economic destabilization. Because of this devaluation, many regions would no longer accept this currency as a valid medium of trade.

In considering the effects of inflation on MNC’s, Madura (2008) asserts that, “If a country’s inflation rate increases relative to the countries with which it trades, its current account will be expected to decrease, other things being equal” (p. 34). Interest rates are similar to the money supply in their effect on prices and inflation and rates of exchange. According to Train (1985), during the hyperinflation that occurred in France around the time of the French Revolution, “As the torrent of paper poured out of the presses, specie vanished, goods were hoarded, and prices flew upward” (p. 58). As a result of the flooding of paper money into this system, its value relative to tradable goods decreased. In order to prevent this at the onset, the Assemblée of France had established an interest rate of 3 percent to attract specie from those who might otherwise question the value of paper money. The result was that a relative equilibrium was temporarily achieved as supply met demand. Greedy by the inflow of coinage, however, the Assemblée began to print money without regard to the equilibrium of supply and demand. Additionally, they reduced the rate of interest payable to zero. The result of these actions was hyperinflation and the overthrow of the French government.

Federal Funds Rate - 1999 - 2009

History of Economic Mismanagement - Part I

For as long as governments have realized such control, they have exhibited a profound interest in manipulating the supply of money, interest rates, and exchange rates. As perhaps the least understood of all sciences, the mistakes in macro-economical policy have burdened societies and devastated nations. While reckless spending and spiraling inflation under the reign of Commodus spelled ruin for the Roman Empire, monetary policy remained a conundrum as history repeated itself during the time of Louis XVI in France. The coals under the financial crisis that became the Great Depression were stoked by a government that failed to comprehend the function of interest rates, taxes, and monetary policy. In Asia, it was an asset bubble followed by mismanagement of interest rates that led to the financial meltdown in 1997. Even today, there is no clear consensus as top economists debate the correct path for legislatures to take during the current recession. Clearly, thousands of years of recorded history should have provided us with testimony of successes and failures that could lead us to make intelligible connections and rationale decisions. With all of the existence of case studies available for review, why does the correct medicine for economic stability remain so difficult to ascertain today?

Where is Geithner?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29304624?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

Santelli's Chicago Tea Party

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1039849853

Congress – Not sure about Free Trade

Perhaps a prerequisite to entering Congress should be a test on basic economics. It would appear that far too many in Congress (our body of trade regulators) have not begun to understand the very basics of trade. For those aspiring Congressmen, please pick up your copy of Adam Smith and follow along:

“By such maxims as these, however, nations have been taught that their interest consisted in beggaring all their neighbors. Each nation has been made to look with an invidious eye upon the prosperity of all the nations with which it trades, and to consider their gain as its own loss. Commerce, which ought naturally to be, among nations, as among individuals, a bond of union and friendship, has become the most fertile source of discord and animosity.”

From a web site promoting the virtues of Congressman Kucinich:


11/07 Kucinich Votes To Keep Jobs In The United States
Stands Up For Millions Of Hardworking Americans

Washington, Nov 8 -Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) stood up for American workers today and voted against the United States-Peru Free Trade Agreement in an attempt to keep good-paying jobs in the United States. “The U.S.-Peru Free Trade Agreement continues the destructive trade policies that spur the exodus of good-paying jobs and undermine the ability of working people to protect their living standards,” Kucinich said.“Our workers in our communities have been hurt by the devastating impact of our flawed trade policies. Since 2001, more than 3 million valuable manufacturing jobs have been lost by U.S. workers due to the unsound NAFTA model for trade, analogous to the U.S.-Peru Free Trade Agreement.“The Bush Administration insists on continuing to implement the same policies that have off-shored jobs and left hard-working Americans in precarious circumstances.“As corporations cut U.S. jobs and relocate in search of lower labor costs, the U.S.-Peru FTA threatens to expand sweatshop labor in Peru and cast doubt on the adequate enforcement of worker protections. In a company already fraught by high poverty levels and a growing gap between the wealthy and the poor, the U.S.-Peru FTA will further exasperate Peru’s difficulties with provisions that ultimately promote privatization and deregulation of basic necessities such as water and electricity.“I cannot and will not support a harmful trade agreement that threatens the livelihood of millions of hard-working Americans.”

Retrieved on February 19, 2009 from http://nafta.kucinich.us/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6&Itemid=2

Key Economic Indicators – Early 1980s versus 2009

Is Nuclear Energy Safer Than Wind?

http://blog.heritage.org/2009/02/18/is-nuclear-energy-safer-than-wind/

What would Reagan Do?

Ronald Reagan came to power at a difficult time in our history. The United States was not only facing a severe economic crisis at the time he took office, but was struggling to meet the demoralizing challenges presented by the Soviet Union. It was Reagan who gave us confidence and had the moral standing to overcome this adversary. He had the moral clarity to define the communist state as what it was: An evil empire. The economy, spurred by a long-term commitment to lower taxes by a pro-growth government, brought us all comfortably into the next decade. When you contrast this with how uncomfortable President Obama and Sec. Geithner have made us feel about our situation lately, you can only ‘hope’ for a ‘change’ to someone with more Reagan-like qualities in the near future.

Calls For Obama to Examine Nuclear Waste Alternative is Step in Right Direction

http://blog.heritage.org/2009/02/17/calls-for-obama-to-examine-nuclear-waste-alternative-is-right-way-to-go/

Protect the Second Amendment

As Bobby Rush tramples on the Constitution, and inner-city citizens misallocate their anger at the legal right of gun ownership. I am happy to direct readers to the following site:

http://www.secondamendmentmarch.com/

This group is dedicated to ensuring the protection of gun ownership rights that are set forth in the Constitution. According to their mission statement:

“We will accomplish our mission by a centralized, peaceful march on the United States Capitol, supported by satellite marches to State Capitols and smaller cities all across America.”

Looking forward to the DC visit in the Spring of 2010!

Photo credit: Zimbio.com

Change Geithner 2009

"We will have to adapt it as conditions change. We will have to try things we've never tried before. We will make mistakes. We will go through periods in which things get worse and progress is uneven or interrupted."

Timothy Geithner
Feb 10, 2009

Do As I Say - Not as I Pay

The Value of a Business Plan

In the Art of War, Sun-tzu (6th BC) wrote that, “One who, fully prepared, awaits the unprepared will be victorious” (p. 179). Sun-tzu theorized on military applications of his concepts, however, his ideas remain powerful tools of business today. As a former business owner, I can attest to the need to precisely plan any business prior to engaging in it. In my case, the business plan was a reactionary process that I undertook at the request and insistence of lenders. Today, with lending standards being challenged resultant of years of abuse and poor practices, it is increasingly important for entrepreneurs to put together a complete business plan early in order to acquire financing. Starting to write a business plan while attempting to conduct business and solicit money from lenders is not a viable option.

Statistically, most businesses fail within their first two-years. According to Sharif Khan (2005), “78% of businesses fail due to lack of a well-developed business plan.” Today, many entrepreneurs are setting forth on a business venture without any plan whatsoever. This is a sure way for business failure. It is the equivalent to driving with a blindfold on. My advice to aspiring entrepreneurs is to conduct as much research and planning as early in the project as possible.

There are many organizations that can aide prospective business owners in the challenging process of organizing a business venture. According to its website, SCORE “is a nonprofit association dedicated to educating entrepreneurs and the formation, growth, and success of small business nationwide.” When I was self-employed, I turned to SCORE for counseling and advice. The only investment required to speak with a SCORE member is your time. As a partner of the Small Business Administration, I would highly recommend that any aspiring entrepreneur utilize this valuable community resource.


References

Khan, S. (2005, March 24). The Chief Cause of Business Failure and Success. Retrieved
on February 12, 2009 from http://www.enterprisetoronto.com/index.cfm?linktype=mainlink&linkId=99&cont
ent_id=805&fromurl=center
SCORE (2009). About SCORE. Retrieved on February 12, 2009 from
http://www.score.org/explore_score.html
Tzu. S (6th BC). In D. Sawyer (Ed.), Sun-tzu: The Art of War (1994). New York: Fall River Press.

Treasury Baffled – Help Wanted

Several months after the election mandate and amidst a widening recession, the Obama administration is frantically seeking solutions to the U.S. economic slow-down. Markets have reacted to the apparent lack of a plan and assets have been driven to the relative safety of treasuries and gold. Following a prime time assurance of “change” by President Barack Obama, Secretary Geithner sat for the much anticipated economic stimulus plan roll-out. Unfortunately, it quickly became apparent that no plan had been finalized. As Mr. Geithner plugged the new plans web site, scores logged on and were disappointed to find that the site was still under construction. Clicking on one of the few links that did exist on the new site, we were directed to the Treasury’s Tarp Help Wanted section. Since his election, President Obama has reminded Americans that recovery is going to take a while. In light of the fact that the Treasury Department is currently scratching its head and looking for help, I would tend to agree.


From the Department of the Treasury:

The Treasury Department is hiring for positions related to the authorities granted by the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act to implement the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Resumes previously sent to Treasury have been logged and all resumes are being reviewed on a rolling basis. We are currently seeking applicants who have specific experience in the specializations listed below. Applicants should review the needed skills and determine which position or positions best match their experience. Applicants should submit their resume to the email link(s) for those opportunities. Those who previously submitted a resume to the general email address may re-submit it to a specific category below.

Aristotle on Usury

Of the two sorts of money-making one, as I have just said, is a part of household management, the other is retail trade: the former necessary and honourable, the latter a kind of exchange which is justly censured; for it is unnatural, and a mode by which men gain from one another. The most hated sort, and with the greatest reason, is usury, which makes a gain out of money itself, and not from the natural use of it. For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term usury, which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of all modes of making money this is the most unnatural.

~Aristotle

Photo credit: mlahanas.de

We Have a Plan

The Senate approved funding for $838 billion dollars of stimulus spending today. The plan was subsequently introduced by its architect, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. Mr. Geithner has provided us with the details of the new plan that are available at http://www.financialstability.gov/. To save you the trouble of reading the intricate details of this plan, I have attached them below:



This site is coming soon.

Photo credit: www.blog.prospect.org

EuroDisney – Foreign Direct Investment Decision

Walt Disney Co., riding high on its resounding success in creating resorts in Tokyo and Orlando, had long planned to enter the European market. Plans to build a Disney park in Europe were first discussed in the 1970's, yet construction did not begin until the 1980's at the location just outside of Paris and it was first opened in 1992. In considering where to locate a European theme park, Disney had much to consider. While some have argued that a theme park in Spain would have more easily transitioned from the red ink to profitability, Disney stood by its decision.

Overall project costs were significantly higher in France. The initial investment for a theme park in Spain was estimated at $1.4 billion, opening a theme park near Paris was expected to cost $2.4 billion. Additionally, while the government in Spain was motivated to offer financial assistance by an unemployment rate of 16%, France was unwilling to provide any aide for the project. The team assigned to evaluate the expansion looked at both qualitative and quantitative factors to make their final decision recommendation. Major contributing factors that were considered largely included culture, weather, cash flow/ net present value, and potential risks. In the end, Disney went with France based on a higher net present value (NPV) calculation. The results of this decision were initially mixed due to the fact that the organization had hoped for a near 100% occupancy rate which failed to materialize. Sensitivity analysis had accounted for this possibility, however the actual occupancy rate fell on the lower end of estimates.

It is very challenging and critical for organizations to accurately estimate cash flows for proposed business ventures. If an MNC is unsure of the estimated cash flows of a proposed project, it needs to incorporate an adjustment for this risk. The accuracy of this calculation may determine whether or not a project succeeds or fails. In order to account for variation MNCs have utilized a number of techniques.

International managers have several tools available to estimate cash flows including the risk-adjusted discount rate, sensitivity analyses, and simulation. The challenge is to understand how the many variables might impact cash flows. Variables that must be considered for variation include: exchange rates, inflation, financing, blocked funds, salvage value, prevailing cash flows, government incentives, and real options. While the risk-adjusted discount rate may be useful for smaller and less risky endeavors, it often fails to account for the diversity and variety of fluctuations of variables. Similarly, sensitivity analyses can be useful, but largely fails to truly prepare MNCs for potential eventualities.

By utilizing simulation methodology, MNCs can calculate a wide-range of potential variables to evaluate. Computer models can utilize the inputted range of each variable and randomly select value’s to determine the net present value (NPV). The computer randomly generates results that give management a perspective on the maximum and minimum possible rate of return based on estimations and chance. The major advantage of simulation is that the MNC can examine the range of possible NPVs that may occur.

Photo Credit: E-Global.es

Income Tax - A Graphical History

Cause and/or Effect

During the current economic stimulus debates, much has been made of the cause versus effects of monetary and fiscal policy. When assessing the results of tax increases during the 1990s, for example, some have reasoned that the economy grew despite or even because of them. The argument continues by claiming that recent tax cuts have resulted in unemployment rates surging to levels unseen in the past quarter century. These claims, oversimplify a complicated and dynamic set of variables, none of which we are capable of isolating.

You must keep in mind that tax cuts do not happen in a box. We do not have the ability to singularly isolate all variables in the real world. We cannot accurately say whether it was monetary policy that caused a particular gain or fiscal policy or even foreign policy. Perhaps one of the infinite other variables caused a gain or loss. Or consider that a certain period of time might have been made worse from action as opposed to having introduced nothing at all. For example, it has been cited that recent tax cuts have resulted in surging unemployment rates. One must consider, relative to what? Had we increased taxes at that time, what would have been the result? The answer is that we do not know precisely. We are forced to use some amount of logic and common sense. We cannot rely on historic measurement if we cannot isolate the variables.

Photo Credit: Whyfiles.org

Wal Mart (WMT) Down 17% YTD Despite Solid Performance

Direct Foreign Investment

The objective of any organization is to maximize shareholder wealth. According to Madura (2008), “MNCs commonly consider direct foreign investment because it can improve their profitability and enhance shareholder wealth” (p. 370). There are many opportunities to profit from the marketplace and these doors often open in foreign nations. These profit opportunities can be broadly grouped into either revenue or cost-related incentives. Aside from the immediate potential for gain, organizations, like individuals, may consider themselves more effectively diversified if they are invested abroad. Diversification, in the form of both suppliers and consumers, will enhance the organizations most important objective. There are many incentives to direct foreign investment and international diversification. Organizations should work to become more international, however, they must be well aware of the potential pitfalls in the markets in which they invest.

Economic conditions in the United States have led to the devaluation of the dollar in recent years. The cheap dollar, coupled with stock prices driven lower by psychological factors, left many otherwise profitable American companies vulnerable to foreign competitors looking to buy cheap assets. In one such notable transaction, InBev, a Belgian brewer, took control of the American behemoth Anheuser-Busch, a proud American brand. According to Anheuser-Busch.com, “The transaction creates significant profitability potential both in terms of revenue enhancement and cost savings” (p. 4). Clearly, the stakeholders in this transaction see potential gains in the form of both cost and revenue effects. While Anheuser-Busch will retain much of its American image, the ownership has shifted to foreign shareholders. This particular case exemplifies the need for organizations to consider the affect of their brand name in their market. As McDonalds moves into markets throughout the world, they have retained their unique American image. Organizations may attempt to leverage their distinctive identity or they may determine to conform to a national standard where they conduct business. Many factors will determine the method each organization utilizes in order to enter foreign markets.


References

Anheuser-Busch InBev (2008, July 13). InBev and Anheuser-Busch Agree to Combine.
Retrieved on February 4, 2009 from http://www.anheuser-
busch.com/Press/PressImages/FINAL%20PRESS%20RELEASE.pdf

Madura, J. (2008). International Financial Management (9th ed.). Ohio: Cengage
Learning